Czech intelligence chief warns Russia could test NATO 'within months'

Russia could attempt to test NATO's unity within months, potentially through a limited incursion into an alliance member's territory or another form of provocation, Czech counterintelligence chief Michal Koudelka has warned.

The head of Czechia's Security Information Service (BIS) made the comments in an interview with The Guardian as intelligence officials across Europe raised concerns about increasingly aggressive Russian activity against NATO countries.

"It could be a limited incursion, a false-flag provocation, or a large-scale campaign to influence public opinion," Koudelka told the British newspaper. He said such a scenario could unfold "in months, not years," while stressing that security services were working to prevent it.

The warning does not mean European intelligence agencies believe a conventional Russian invasion of NATO is imminent. Latvia's security chief Normunds Mežviets told The Guardian that his service sees "no signs of an imminent attack," while acknowledging indications that Moscow may be preparing more aggressive actions in Western Europe.

Koudelka said Russia's strategy is to "escalate in order to de-escalate," using pressure and uncertainty to exploit weaknesses in Western societies and reduce their willingness to support Ukraine.

"The Russians believe that if they push the escalation far enough, European countries will decide not to support Ukraine," he said.

The Czech intelligence chief was one of three senior European security officials interviewed by The Guardian, alongside Mežviets and Swedish Military Intelligence and Security Service chief Thomas Nilsson.

All three expect Russia's sabotage campaign in Europe to intensify in the coming months, even as they differed over the likelihood of a direct confrontation with NATO.

Koudelka said possible Russian tactics could range from increased drone activity and influence operations to false-flag incidents or a limited territorial incursion.

Such warnings have gained urgency following a series of security incidents across Europe and a warning last week from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk that intelligence indicated Russia could be preparing hybrid attacks against countries supporting Ukraine.

Tusk said such incidents could involve drones or missiles and be designed to appear accidental, potentially testing NATO members' willingness to respond collectively.

Koudelka also warned that Russia's activities are putting additional pressure on European intelligence services even when Moscow ultimately proves to have had no involvement in a particular incident.

Security agencies must increasingly investigate fires, infrastructure failures and other unexplained events as potential acts of sabotage or terrorism before ruling out hostile involvement, he said.

That uncertainty itself can serve Moscow's interests by consuming intelligence resources and generating public anxiety.

Sweden's Nilsson similarly said Russia appears to be pursuing several objectives through intensified sabotage activity: weakening European support for Ukraine, dividing NATO and creating fear among European populations.

Baltic leaders have meanwhile urged caution over suggestions that a Russian military attack is imminent. Russia continues to commit substantial resources to its war in Ukraine, and officials have warned that overstating the immediate risk could itself contribute to the fear and instability that Russian influence operations seek to create.

Neither Koudelka nor Mežviets disclosed the specific intelligence underlying their assessments.

Koudelka's comments nevertheless represent a notably short timeline for the potential escalation of Russia's confrontation with NATO: not necessarily a full-scale war, but a deliberate action designed to test how the alliance responds.