Regional and Senate elections took place in Czechia over the weekend, which will partly change the composition of Czechia’s upper house of parliament as well as local governments nationwide. Both domestic and international media acknowledge that results went strongly for opposition party ANO, led by former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš.
How important are these elections?
Every four years, Czechia holds elections that decide local and regional governments, as well as one-third of the Senate (the upper house of Czech parliament). These are split into two rounds, which occur over two consecutive weekends. The first round has just taken place.
While certainly not as important as the country’s general, parliamentary election – this will happen in September or October 2025 – the regional elections have the potential to partially shake up local governments. They also give a very good indication of the current popularity of the incumbent government parties versus the opposition.
What do the results mean?
This is best broken down by first analyzing regional results.
ANO emerged victorious in the local elections, securing a total of 292 members. The party won in 10 out of 13 Czech regions.
The senior ruling government coalition Civic Democrats (ODS) party managed to only win outright in South Bohemia. ODS elected 106 politicians, while the junior Mayors and Independents (STAN) coalition party secured 73 legislators. Other coalition partners, TOP 09 and the Christian Democrats (KDU-ČSL), gained 125 and 49 members respectively.
However, the junior ruling Pirates party failed to make a significant impact, managing to secure only a meager three members.
The junior opposition Freedom and Direct Democracy party (SPD) will now have 32 members, trailing ANO by a large margin.
How will this affect Czech regional politics?
ANO may have secured the most votes in almost all regions, but this does not mean it will automatically rule. In only two regions – Karlovy Vary and Moravia-Silesia – does the country’s largest opposition party have enough votes to rule alone.
Otherwise, ANO and other parties will need to broker coalitions to govern in a region. This is not a straightforward process, and can often take a while to settle. Only then will we see how Czech regions may be governed. The situation will also be clearer at the end of next weekend (Sept. 29).
Prague did not vote in the elections. Central Bohemia did; STAN won the most votes.
How will this affect the Czech Senate?
Although September’s elections only affect one-third of the upper house’s composition, results mean that several senators have been ousted, with new ones taking their place.
The first round saw ANO elect two new senators to parliament. In 22 of the 27 contested districts nationwide, no candidate won a majority of the vote in the first round, and therefore the two most successful candidates will meet in the second round next weekend.
The Czech News Agency predicts that the opposition party will at least double its current number of five senators by the end of next weekend.
Did the Czech floods affect turnout?
Turnout in the regional elections was 32.9 percent, which is below average. Unsurprisingly, it was lowest in the region worst affected by the floods, Moravia-Silesia (30 percent).
However, the floods and subsequent low turnout – which were worse in the more conservative east of the area – on the whole would arguably have disadvantaged ANO. In the 2021 general election, for example, ANO won over one-third of the vote in Moravia-Silesia, as opposed to 20.6 percent for the eventually victorious Spolu (Together) government coalition.
Interior Minister Vít Rakušan told the press that he considers it right that the Czech regional and Senate elections were held on the scheduled date despite the floods.
What is the immediate aftermath?
Leader of the Pirates party Ivan Bartoš announced his resignation Sunday afternoon, citing extremely poor results. Some Czech political analysts have even suggested that the Pirates may exit the current government coalition.
Coalition negotiations are currently being thrashed out – some have already been made. In South Moravia, the ruling coalition parties have come together to form a government, even though ANO had the most votes.
In the Vysočina region, ANO prefers a majority coalition, but the second-largest party by votes does not want it. Negotiations are ongoing in the Olomouc region, where it is now impossible to form a majority without ANO.
How have politicians reacted?
Speaking directly after the election, Babiš said that ANO’s victories were “the result of intensive work while in parliamentary opposition.” He estimated that his party will, in regional assemblies, win up to 113 more seats than four years ago, when it won 178. He pointed out that the current government has no results and is only “destroying” Czechia.
Prime Minister and leader of ODS Petr Fiala said the election outcomes were neither a success nor a fatal failure for his party. We [ODS] must be better, stronger, and more successful," Fiala commented.
South Bohemia Governor Martin Kuba of the ODS was far more critical, despite winning in the region. Kuba told the press that ODS must admit that the regional election “was a failure, the situation cannot be downplayed, and that the result is very bad in view of the parliamentary elections next year.”
TOP 09 leader Markéta Pekarová Adamová said that results for TOP 09 legislators was “excellent news.” However, she added: “We must do everything we can to win sufficient voter support [next year] to defeat the populists and extremists. It would be tragic for our country if we took the Hungarian or Slovakian route.”
Czech President Petr Pavel saw the results as a signal to the government to pay more attention to specific regions before the 2025 election.
What is the media saying?
Domestic media are united in their analysis that the results show citizens’ discontent with the current government.
Foreign media take the same line: the Associated Press wrote that "the result reflected stable support for ANO…and a boost for Babiš ahead of next year's general election."
Austrian news agency APA wrote that Fiala’s coalition suffered “a heavy defeat” in the elections. However, it also pointed out that finding partners for regional coalitions will not be easy for Babiš’ party.
Slovak newspaper Sme wrote: “[The government’s] long-awaited reforms in education or healthcare have not materialized, and the majority of Czechs have condemned the government’s [2023] consolidation package.”
Financial-news site Bloomberg said it was a “warning” for the current coalition.
What now?
As most regions await for the second round of elections next weekend, parties will attempt to form coalitions among each other.
Analyzing the situation from a wider lens, this weekend’s result is a sure sign that ANO remains the comfortable favorite to heavily win the 2025 general election by votes, as recent opinion polls indicate.
The next 12 months will witness the ruling coalition attempt to appease disenchanted citizens and ANO capitalize – and illuminate – any missteps.
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