Study: Up to 260,000 Ukrainian refugees may stay in Czechia permanently

A recent study for the Czech Ministry of Labour projects that as many as 260,000 Ukrainian refugees could settle permanently in Czechia by 2035. The study, conducted by Boston Consulting Group and the Aspen Institute’s Central European branch, suggests that the overall foreign population in the country may rise to 1.36 million within the next decade.

While the influx of refugees has alleviated some labor shortages, challenges related to their integration remain. As of March 2024, there were 364,600 refugees from Ukraine residing in Czechia under temporary protection, alongside 708,700 other foreigners holding residence permits.

The study indicates that 70 percent of these Ukrainian refugees are expected to remain long-term, though the situation in Ukraine will play a crucial role in this forecast.

The presence of Ukrainian refugees has already made a noticeable impact on Czechia’s labor market. According to the study, their arrival has helped the country's chronic worker shortage, particularly in sectors like construction, industry, and services.

This labor influx has contributed positively to the economy, especially in areas such as market demand, where refugees have brought new consumer behaviors and needs.

“The influx of labor has helped significantly alleviate the shortage of workers,” said Tomáš Wiedermann, one of the study’s co-authors. “Even with increasing numbers, we will still need more workers to fill gaps in the economy.”

However, while the labor market has benefited from this influx, there are also substantial integration hurdles to address.

Language barriers, limited recognition of qualifications, and pressures on social and health systems have posed significant challenges for the newcomers. The study emphasizes that overcoming these obstacles will be crucial for ensuring the long-term success of integration efforts.

Looking ahead to 2030, the study estimates that the foreign population in Czechia could approach 1.19 million. By 2035, this figure could rise to 1.36 million, with a large proportion of this growth stemming from Ukrainian refugees who are expected to stay.

The report also highlights that many Ukrainian teenagers, currently in their youth, will eventually join the labor force, further contributing to the country's economic dynamics.

Despite these optimistic projections, the study underscores the importance of addressing integration issues. As the war in Ukraine continues, the number of refugees intending to stay in Czechia has risen.

A survey by the Czech Public Opinion Research Centre found that 75 percent of refugees planned to settle in Czechia or another country by late 2024, compared to just 43 percent in December 2022. This shift reflects the prolonged nature of the conflict and its impact on refugees' long-term plans.