Czech food price shock: Inflation hits hard, rising fastest in EU after Turkey

If your grocery bill feels heavier lately, you're not imagining it. In February, food prices in Czech stores were up 4.5 percent year-on-year, one of the highest increases in the EU. Meat, fruits, and vegetables have seen the steepest price hikes, with some items like potatoes, onions, and olive oil continuing their long-term rise.

Meanwhile, the price of oilseeds, cereals, and fruit is also climbing, largely due to global supply chain disruptions. A weak fruit harvest in the Czech Republic—the worst in a century—means more apples and cherries must be imported at higher costs.

Turkey is currently the only country on the continent where food prices have risen even slightly faster since the beginning of this year. 

According to the Czech National Bank, food prices have become more volatile than ever in the last three years. Historically, price fluctuations were minor, but inflation peaked at 27 percent in 2022, causing Czech food to lose its reputation as being relatively cheap.

While inflation has since subsided, prices haven’t returned to pre-crisis levels, and unpredictability remains high. Energy prices, changing tax rates, and demand shifts all contribute to these unexpected swings. Some experts suggest that businesses might preemptively set higher prices to hedge against future cost increases.

Not all food prices are soaring. Sugar, dried fruits, and nuts have become more affordable. Butter, a staple in many households, is also seeing significant price drops. Supermarkets are in a fierce battle to lure customers with butter promotions, with some retailers offering it at 40 CZK per pack—a level unseen in months.

Increased milk fat content, better supply of cheaper imported butter, and intense retail competition have all contributed to the price drop. However, analysts predict this relief might only last until the summer when milk fat content declines and demand surges around Easter.

Overall, Czech food prices are expected to increase by around 6 percent this year, more than double the general inflation rate, says Lukaš Kovanda, Chief Economist at Trinity Bank, while some items will remain affordable for now, shoppers should be prepared for continued fluctuations at the checkout.

"Czech industry has been struggling for over two and a half years as it continues to be plagued by relatively high energy prices, relatively high interest rates, problems in the German economy, and, more recently, the threat of a global trade war."