Czech crown drops against dollar amid Trump’s lead in US presidential race

The Czech koruna is taking a significant hit, weakening against the U.S. dollar as markets react to early indicators of a possible victory for Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election, according to data from Patria Online.

The koruna fell by 35 halers since Tuesday’s close, trading at CZK 23.60 per dollar as of Wednesday morning. This marks one of the steepest declines among global currencies, with the Mexican peso and Hungarian forint experiencing similar pressure.

By contrast, the Russian ruble has strengthened in response to Trump’s gains over his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, in several critical states.

According to Trinity Bank economist Lukáš Kovanda, writing for Newstream, the possibility of a Trump presidency brings renewed uncertainty for international trade and interest rates. The former president’s stance on tariffs and protectionist policies could stifle global trade flows, which impacts currencies heavily dependent on export-driven economies, such as the Czech Republic and Hungary.

"Trump’s tariffs could put significant pressure on the Czech koruna, which relies heavily on international trade,” Kovanda writes. “With potential barriers to trade, currencies in similar positions are seeing losses today."

Hungary’s forint has also been deeply affected. Kovanda noted that Hungary’s economy is especially reliant on China, due to its investments in electric battery production, and Germany, particularly its automotive sector. Trump's tariffs on imports from these key trading nations could further weaken Hungary’s currency, potentially posing a challenge to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s re-election in 2026.

While the koruna weakens, global stock markets are trending upward alongside a strong dollar, which saw its largest rally since March 2020. Bitcoin also surged, reaching a historic USD 75,000 per coin. In the U.S., bond yields rose amid growing optimism among investors that Trump’s policies could favor market growth, though analysts caution that unified Republican control over the executive and legislative branches could lead to significant policy shifts.

Financial markets generally prefer a balanced U.S. political landscape, where neither party holds dominant control, to ensure moderation in policy changes. However, with both the White House and Congress poised for a potential Republican sweep, investors may brace for more dramatic policy changes than usual.

As political developments continue to unfold, analysts expect the koruna to remain under pressure, particularly if Trump’s lead solidifies, raising concerns over protectionist measures and interest rate impacts on the Czech economy.