How the outcome of the 2024 election could impact US expats in Czechia

Czechia’s sizable community of American expats is waiting to see who the U.S. will elect as its 47th president this week.

They may be living thousands of miles away, but Czechia-based American expats—over 9,000 in total—will certainly feel the policies of presidential hopefuls Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, regardless of who gets into office.

Along with foreign policy and general world security, other, more specific topics are at the forefront of American expats' attention: citizenship-based taxation, healthcare access, and the issuance of visas to name a few.

Although less than 8 percent of all Americans abroad voted in 2020 according to the Federal Voting Assistance Program, this year’s knife-edge—and wholly unpredictable—election may see more Americans abroad cast a vote. In fact, Time commented that this year overseas and absentee voters may “determine the outcome” of the election.

The overseas vote is so crucial that Democrats Abroad (DA), the official organization of the Democratic Party for U.S. citizens overseas, has, for the first time, received funding from the Democratic National Committee to mobilize U.S. expats. This comes against the backdrop of Trump suggesting that Democrats are “getting ready to cheat” by encouraging overseas citizens to vote.

Julia Bryan, Vice-Chair for Democrats Abroad and long-term Prague resident, highlighted that the election's outcome will impact “healthcare options, social security, taxation, and investment issues, and the right to citizenship for expats’ children.”

Notably, she mentions that Harris’ campaign has committed to addressing expats’ challenges with “banking, taxation, and financial services.”

At the same time, she warns a Trump administration could bring “seriously burdensome tax laws for small business owners abroad” and impose “more barriers for Americans abroad in securing citizenship for our children as well as immigration issues for families moving back to the U.S.”

On global issues, Bryan emphasizes how U.S. leadership in NATO, trade policies, and international relations directly affect Americans overseas. She expressed concern over the severe tariffs Trump may impose, potentially damaging both the U.S. and global economies.

“With races this close in so many states, the overseas vote will definitely be the margin of victory in several states,” she adds, noting that Democrats Abroad has already helped mobilize more voters this year than in 2020.

Solomon Yue, vice chairman of Republicans Overseas, a GOP-aligned advocacy organization for Americans abroad, told Expats.cz that one of the main issues for Americans living abroad was “double taxation” by the IRS more formally known as citizenship-based taxation (CBT).

This law requires Americans living abroad to submit an annual report and pay U.S. taxes on their worldwide income. Yue noted that Trump “promised to end” CBT.

He also noted the importance of this year’s overseas vote, especially in battleground states, stating: “President Trump is winning the overseas vote big time.”

According to Reuters, about 1.6 million Americans abroad are eligible to vote in the seven battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In 2020, Biden won the presidency with just 44,000 votes from Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin.

As to the partisan leanings of overseas voters, according to AP VoteCast surveys, 59 percent of U.S. military veterans supported Trump in the 2020 election.

Bruce Heyman, former U.S. ambassador to Canada and co-leader of Americans Abroad for Harris-Walz, (a Democrats Abroad group), told Politico last month that approximately 80 percent of Americans living abroad vote Democrat.

As Americans in Czechia await the results of this tight race, the local expat community will be watching closely, regardless of their political views. 

This year’s excitement is palpable: the Democrats Abroad watch party at expat haunt Globe Bookstore and Café in Prague has already filled up, underscoring the fact that even from afar, American expats remain deeply connected to the outcome of this historic election, maintaining strong ties to U.S. policy and leadership.